Industry with the global economy adjust periodic fluctuation of superposition role, will make the 2009 global electronic components industry continues to boom of the downside. For our country's electronic components industry, export slowdown and lower demand has become the main impact forces, and deflation, capacity expansion engine, technology innovation, hard break 2009 earnings will continue to decline. Industry Analysts suggest the industry overall remain cautious and can be proper attention may appear in the industry of m&a cases, and grasp the outstanding son industry, technology innovation ability of the main item stock and demand of strong stability defense varieties.

Double factors drag industry to the downside

Electronic components industry end products are cyclical consumer goods characteristics, its demand and economic fluctuation closely. Three quarters of the global electronic products demand has declined. However, analysts widely believe that, in addition to economic reasons, their cyclical adjustment is also the boom of industry dip of the important factors that lead to this industry adjust the dual factors of the time and amplitude are likely to beating market expectations.

Citic, analysts said electronics manufacturing downward since 2007 has been revealed, the middle of the show this trend downward smooth is a longer adjustment period; The financial crisis of the influence of the real economy is speeding up the industry in the near future the speed of the downside. Cathay Pacific (also thinks, industry analysts periodic adjustment and global economy fluctuation of superposition, will allow 2009 global electronics industry is facing more complex situation, only through the industry own supply regulation difficult to achieve the balance of supply and demand of industry again. Industry boom is still down space, is expected to this round of industry boom may last adjustment one to two years.

The company points out that the au, and 2001 to 2002 global electronics industry, the adjustment of the adjustment of the industry than redundant inventories only 40% in 2001, but demand could quickly after the first decline to maintain a long time, and after 2005 years the downturn in global electronic industry have entered into single-digit growth at maturity, the innovation of technology, abate, so the dynamic adjustment time may still take two years. But analysts also puts forward, considering the inventories were small, and countries compete to launch to stimulate the economy in the second half of 2009, policy may reflect, so the second half of 2009 electronic industry is expected to present a busy season features, but not enough to change the economic and industry trend downward.

Domestic demand export are hit

Global economic crisis, our country electronic products export slowdown, domestic demand is also increasingly downturn. The weakness of the domestic final demand for electronic components industry constitute a bigger impact.

First of all, as the global economy from falling further, the domestic electronic products in the export prospects will get into dim. Southwest securities analysts said the economic crisis on global especially countries in Europe and America were worsening economic impact for exports, of the big domestic electronic components industry speaking difficult to possess, some leading enterprise performance in the third quarter has been decreasing. The Great Wall securities analysts also pointed out that China components manufacturing enterprises in China in recent years, higher export dependence of electronic equipment manufacturing products export proportion of the present year by year, electronic devices, PCB situation and magnetic materials three subdivision industry in the first half of 2008 the proportion of the export of over 50%. Because of the financial crisis, global economic entity erosion electronic end products export the drop, our country 1-October electronic information industry for an export value of growth, 14.3% in the second quarter than fell 5.3%, which will directly influence to the component industry needs.

Second, the economic crisis will make domestic residents to reduce the consumption of the electronic products. Zhongjin co, although that is stimulating domestic demand in the government to stimulate the economy first priority, but as an alternative consumer goods in most of the electronic products, 2009 years of the consumer outlook is not optimistic. At present domestic per capita disposable income growth is slowing, 2008 years ago 3 quarter disposable income of urban residents actual growth was only 7.5%, compared with 11.9% in 2007, and less than 8.5% in 2001. At the same time, the stock markets and real estate prices remain low, residents have assets of the wealth effect from 2007 to 2008 is negative in 2009, is expected to can also be difficult to become is. In addition, the real estate market downturn also reduces the electronic products of the new demand. According to statistics, China's consumer electronics retail growth has started to drop.

Industry profit continue to fall next year

In addition to terminal decline in demand, industry and driving force outside disappear deflation is also restricted the development of the industry, extrusion enterprise profit, the important factors in 2009 industry overall performance will continue to decline.

Cicc, analysts say, capacity expansion and technology innovation is electronic enterprise growth, with two major driving force of international production transfer gradually finish, the market demand of gradually saturated and the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis and in a few years by capacity expansion drive the growth mode of difficult to continue, can only hope that technology innovation. But the electronic components industry is in the electronic manufacturing industry chain, the low end of the domestic enterprise technology innovation in 2009 the visibility of the great-leap-forward breakthrough is not high.

In addition, deflation concerns become 2009 industry with the problems. The Great Wall securities analysts pointed out that, in the domestic and foreign economic decline background, the CPI, PPI back sharply in 2009, the cost of electronic components industry changes will lag behind, the change of income earnings will get great industry erosion. Since there are production cycle of reason, manufacturers need to the possible future ahead for order foot materials. In the background of deflation, although the price and the price of materials are shipment last fall, but material reflects the sequel to the shipment, price reflects the current demand, the price will be seriously extruding manufacturers with profit space, erosion of Maori level enterprise.

In the first half of 2008 electronic components industry net profit fell 9.28%, year-on-year drop to 19.48% gross margin. As the foreign-oriented, domestic electronic industry has started in 2008 in the second half of the boom industry especially feel sharp changing of. Analysts generally expected to boom, the downside risk will continue in the industry to extend and deepen the level, will have more company performance with annulus compared to appear drop.

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